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INSIGHTS

Service Update on Variance in Betting (12/07/22)

I've had a few questions from members regarding variance in betting so I just wanted to send an update out to all members.

 

As with all forms of betting there are periods of negative variance, but if you consistently back value selections you will profit in the long term. 

 

Below are the last 8 WIN tips sent out to members

 

 

As you can see, the selections provided have been of value as we are fairly consistent in beating the betfair starting price. Backing a selection greater than its Betfair Starting Price is a measure of the quality of the selection. If you beat the starting price, you beat the market and you will win long term.

 

Yes, there are of course times where we beat the starting price and the bet loses and that's negative variance or in other words bad luck. However, over a long sample of bets the variance evens out and your bank will grow.

 

However,  if you find you are struggling dealing with variance in betting and you are not strict in betting in proportion to your betting bank available to you there are other options.

You could also look into laying off the selections at BSP on betfair.
There are two ways you can do this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For example as shown above, yesterday's bet on Ratanui Lewi was sent out advising members to back it above $2.8, and it was pretty much $3 across the board and stayed at $3 for quite a considerable amount of time.

 

Say you placed $100 on it at $3. 

 

If you UNDERLAYED the selection and layed $107.53 on it at its betfair starting price, you essentially have a free bet on that selection. 

$60.21 Profit if it wins and if it loses you break even.
(Since you win $107.53 on betfair if it loses and as betfair takes 7% commission for W.A greyhounds you profit $100 on betfair.)

Or you could do a standard match and lay $134.53 at betfair starting price and be in a position of $25.11 profit no matter the outcome of the race.

 

If you backed the selection outright you would profit $200 if it won, and lose $100 if it lost.

 

In the long term betting the selections outright only is the best way for maximum returns and what I advise as part of this service. (Betting selections outright and managing your bank and bet sizes) 

 

But I just want to let you know there are other ways to play the selections if you find it hard to deal with variance in betting. However, these methods come with a bit more work as you need to monitor the market closely before the jump of the race and make sure you have enough edge to ensure its worthwhile laying off the selection.

 

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