2025 Performance Review and Strategic Upgrades for 2026

Hi All,

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2025 marked another profitable year for the service. While we ended in the green, the results didn't quite reach the high standards I set for myself and the service.

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2025 Performance Snapshot (Profit on Turnover)

• Best Odds: +2.83%

• 3rd Best Odds: +0.59%

• Betfair SP (BSP): -6.41%

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Overall Service Performance (2022 – Present) With a sample size closing in on 1,000 bets, the long-term edge remains strong:

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• Best Odds: +10.13%

• 3rd Best Odds: +6.12%

• Betfair SP (BSP): +4.57%

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The "Unlucky" Year? (Process vs. Result)

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I did a deep dive to understand why 2025 fell short of previous years. The data revealed something interesting regarding the percentage of bets beating the BSP:

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• 2022: 45.78%

• 2023: 41.35%

• 2024: 52.98%

• 2025: 56.60%

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My selection process in finding value was actually the best it has ever been in 2025. We beat the market 56.6% of the time. The reduced profit was largely a factor of negative variance—we were on the right dogs at the right price, but they simply didn't win enough races this year.

However, we don't just blame "luck." I have analysed the data to identify specific leaks and have made the following strategic changes for 2026.

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Strategic Changes for 2026

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1. Focus on WIN Bets (The Bread & Butter) I have been profitable on WIN bets in every single year—even during the tougher years of 2023 (+9.9%) and 2025 (+10.7%). This consistency proves my edge is strongest here.

• The Change: Place bets have been a consistent drag on POT (breaking even or losing). Moving forward, Place bets will be removed unless there is a massive pricing error.

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2.  My performance varies wildly depending on when the race is run:

• Early Races (1-4): +0.27% POT (Breakeven). Issue: Generally Maiden / Novice races.

• Middle Races (5-8): +26.11% POT 

• Late Races (9-12): +5.08% POT 

• The Change: I will be extremely cautious betting into Maidens / Novice racing. I will focus our volume on the "Graded" races where the form is more exposed and reliable.

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3. The Box Draw. The data doesn't lie. My reading of the race maps is strong in certain boxes and poor in others.

• The Money Makers (Box 1, 4, 6):

  • Box 1: +26.26% POT. (Profitable in every single year).

  • Box 6: +41.30% POT.

• The Money Burners (Box 8 & 2):

  • Box 8 (-27.68% POT): I constantly misread dogs from wide draws. Bets from Box 7 and 8 will be heavily restricted or removed.

  • Box 2 (-11.90% POT): This is a "trap" draw. I often overestimate the clear run a dog will get from box 2 and generally back it at unders in the market. I will be applying stricter criteria to any Box 2 selection to ensure it is of value and will be getting a clear run.

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New Staking Plan: "Bet to Profit"

Previously we used a unit staking plan, but there was too much confusion over time with members. Therefore to simplify the service and maximize our edge on value runners, we are moving away from "Units" to a "Bet to Profit" staking plan. 

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To simplify the service 

For the Results and when sending out tips the staking plan will be:

• Target Profit: $500

• Max Stake: $250 (Cap)

Note: You can adjust these figures to your bankroll (e.g., Target $100, Max Stake $50). The max stake is always half your target profit

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If I provide multiple selections in the same race I will state whether to back both to Profit $500 or just the main selection to profit $500 and the other selection as a small saver to profit say $125. 

How it works: We calculate the stake required to win $500. However, we cap the stake at $250 to ensure we never over-invest on short-priced selections.

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A simple method to calculate your stake is 

Target Profit divided by (odds-1)

Examples:

1. Value Bet ($4.40 Odds):

   • Calculation: $500 / (4.4 - 1) = $147 Stake.

   • Result: If it wins, you profit $500.

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2. Short Favorite ($2.80 Odds):

   • Calculation: $500 / (2.8 - 1) = $278.

   • Result: This exceeds our limit, so we bet the Max Stake of $250.

This method ensures we bet bigger on value runners (where our edge is high) and protects our bankroll on shorter odds.

Moving forward, the 'Profit Guarantee' will apply exclusively to new members for their first 3 months of the service. While we stand by our long-term results, the issues we have had managing refunds and the processing fees associated with it have proven unsustainable. This change allows us to focus our resources on finding winners rather than administration

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To increase social media engagement, selections will also be shared on social media platforms, X, Facebook and Instagram 2 min. before the jump.

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Being profitable in this game of betting is about constant evolution. The data has shown us exactly where to trim the fat and where to double down.

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Thank you for your continued support and I look forward to starting strong in February 2026.